2009 Oscar Best Contenders Part 2: Original Screenplay

This is a interesting category. Like the adapted screenplay category, here we have two strong contenders, a wild card, and two weak contenders. Let's review:

Frozen River - This film is up for two awards this year: Best Actress and Best Original Screenplay. Unfortunately, it's up against two very strong nominees in both categories. Despite the awards this film has won already, look for it to be a longshot in this race.

Happy-Go-Lucky - The wild card in this race. This film is performance led, largely focusing around Sally Hawkins' role as Poppy, but the script was original enough to warrant a nomination. The film has already won 16 awards (only one of them being for the screenplay). The Academy sometimes picks quirky saccharine independent films as of late (see the original paragraph in Part 1 of my Contenders choices). This film could surprise everyone with a win.

In Bruges - One of the two strong contenders in this race. This is this film's sole category. The film has already won numerous other awards for best original screenplay. Since McDonaugh didn't get a nod for Director, look for In Bruges to be a likely winner.

Milk - Another strong contender. Milk is up for eight Oscars, including best picture, best director, and best actor. Unfortunately, every one of those categories has it pitted against a stronger candidate. This is Milk's most likely category for a win, but it has to go up against In Bruges.

Wall-E - It's rare that animated films get nominated for this category. The script is good, but Wall-E is a lock to win in the Best Animated Feature Film of the Year category instead.

Conclusion: Look for In Bruges to take this category.